50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

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Socrates
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50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by Socrates » Sun May 05, 2019 6:53 pm

"Martin Rees is Britain’s astronomer royal, a professor at Cambridge University, and one of the leading cosmologists in the world. In a 2003 book, titled Our Final Hour, he gave civilization a 50-50 chance of surviving the 21st century, an estimate he reached after surveying all the ways humanity could destroy itself."

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018 ... artin-rees

One in two... :o
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Nelson
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Re: 50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by Nelson » Mon May 06, 2019 2:04 am

So if odds of complete self destruction are at 50%, what about the odds of a major socio-economic collapse? 80%? 90%?
Jako
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Re: 50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by Jako » Mon May 06, 2019 2:09 am

Let's be honest, we suck at managing our society. We don't really solve issues and only see short term.
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evelynnn
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Re: 50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by evelynnn » Mon May 06, 2019 2:12 am

You guys are so pessimistic!
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Nelson
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Re: 50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by Nelson » Mon May 06, 2019 2:23 am

evelynnn wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 2:12 am
You guys are so pessimistic!
Those are odds and odds should be viewed as what they are, realist but not definitive. I think the human race has extraordinary potential when its required to overcome a great challenge. Think of the manhattan project developping the a-bomb or the apollo program to go on the moon, tremendous things can be achieved in just a decade (good or bad).

I am sure if all countries invested 15% of their gdp into sustainability, we would solve that 50/50 challenge very quickly.
Jako
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Re: 50/50 chance of surviving 21th century?

Post by Jako » Mon May 06, 2019 2:30 am

The question is, will we do that in time? For example, estimates range from 20 to 40 years before the tipping point of climate. After that it will fall into a feedback loop. So even if we stopped all emissions, the temperatures will keep rising.

20 years is very short to turn the whole world around.

My pessimism comes from the fact that, to date, the rate of change in society is waaaayyy to slow to succeed in time.
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